January 5, 2009
Welcome to a new year of trading, traders are getting back to a market that’s becoming more complicated with geopolitical issues, the Israeli offensive in Gaza and Russian-Ukraine gas dispute. In the backdrop to this is a rate decision from the UK Thursday and Fridays US Employment situation report. Still Monday should start enough as a very technical day given a bare slate in the data calendar with EURUSD looking very attractive to further its retreat with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the December rally at 1.3831 looking critical. Recall much of the December rally was premised on a no rate cut scenario for the ECB following Trichet comments but latest talk from other Governing Council members suggests continued policy easing.
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January 5, 2009
The US dollar began to strengthen against a basket of currencies in thin holiday trading as investors sold the European currency in recognition of data showing deepening recession in the euro zone. Despite dollar gains, manufacturing in the U.S. shrank in December to lowest levels since 1980 signaling a deepening recession. Liquidity remains thin during the holiday season with many market participants taking the day off; full liquidity will likely not return to the markets until next week at
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January 4, 2009
Euro/US Dollar Consolidates Above Key Support - Breakout Potential? British Pound Outlook Hinges Upon the Bank of England’s Rate Decision US Dollar Ends Friday on Strong Note, Could Pull Back Next Week The US dollar ended Friday mixed across the majors, as the currency gained against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen but fell versus the commodity dollars as oil rose toward $50/bbl. The greenback’s gains came despite the release of disappointing US data, which also had
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January 4, 2009
Oil price extended Friday's rally on escalated conflict in Gaza. The February contract rose to above $47/bbl in Asia morning with the next resistance at $50/bbl. Israel resisted renewing the ceasefire that expired on Dec 19 and said it has to defeat the Hamas military despite international pressure. Yesterday, Israeli troops drove deeper in Gaza, from aerial campaign to ground operations. Investors worry that the conflict will spread to other parts of the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia,
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January 4, 2009
Mon, 05th of January, 2009
By Setyo Wibowo (analyst@fxinstructor.com)
EURUSD Outlook
The EURUSD didn’t make a significant movement on Friday. On hourly chart we can see that the pair moved in ranging area of 1.3980 – 1.3840. However I think the bias remains bearish. We have a descending triangle formation on 4h chart. CCI just cross the -100 line up on 4h chart suggesting a potential upside corrective movement testing 1.4035 resistance area. A break below 1.3850 would be considered as breakdown of the descending triangle formation and could trigger further bearish momentum targeting 1.3750 and 1.3600 area.
EURUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.3845
- S2= 1.3767
- S3= 1.3697
- R1= 1.3993
- R2= 1.4063
- R3= 1.4141
GBPUSD Outlook
The GBPUSD attempted to push lower on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.4377 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair closed higher at 1.4549. However the bearish scenario is still intact targeting 1.4285 in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4570. Initial support at 1.4390. A break below that support level could trigger further bearish momentum. CCI in neutral area and heading down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures.
GBPUSD Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.4391
- S2= 1.4233
- S3= 1.4090
- R1= 1.4692
- R2= 1.4835
- R3= 1.4993
USDJPY Outlook
The USDJPY made another bullish momentum on Friday. The pair topped at 92.60 and closed at 91.80. On hourly chart we can see that after the pair breakout from rectangle pattern, the pair made a significant bullish movement. The bias remains bullish targeting 92.70 and 93.35 area. CCI in overbought area and about to cross the 100 line down on hourly chart suggesting a potential downside pressures testing 91.60 support level.
USDJPY Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 90.92
- S2= 90.05
- S3= 89.31
- R1= 92.53
- R2= 93.27
- R3= 94.14
USDCHF Outlook
The USDCHF continued it’s bullish momentum on Friday. On daily chart we can see a Hammer candlestick formation formed in 29/12/2008 should be an early warning of the bullish reversal scenario, supported by daily CCI just cross -100 line up. The bias remains bullish targeting 1.0950 and 1.1088 area. However CCI in overbought area and about to cross 100 line down on 4h chart suggesting a potential downside pressures testing 1.0665 and 1.0610 support area.
USDCHF Daily Supports and Resistances:
- S1= 1.0665
- S2= 1.0522
- S3= 1.0433
- R1= 1.0897
- R2= 1.0986
- R3= 1.1129
Have a great day!
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January 4, 2009
Monday in Asia, the US dollar strengthened to a 19-day high against the Singapore dollar, 12-day high against the Philippine peso, 10-day high against the Taiwan dollar, 6-day high against the Thai baht and the Malaysian ringgit.
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January 4, 2009
Monday, the Australian dollar pared the gains it posted in early Asian trading against other major currencies. The aussie thus eased from a 3 1/2 -month high against the loonie, 2 1/2 -month high against the greenback, 2-month high against the yen and a 1-month high against the euro.
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January 4, 2009
EURO The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar yesterday as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3840 level and was capped around the $1.3985 level. The common currency came off after the EMU-15 December purchasing managers’ index receded to 33.9 from 35.6 in November. European Central Bank member Nowotny reiterated credit conditions remain tight with credit demand quite weak. Many traders believe the ECB will reduce interest rates further on 15
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January 2, 2009
Market Brief Volumes are still very thin in this first day of trading of 2009 as many bourses in Asia are still closed for today. The EURUSD channeled downward this morning bringing the pair from 1.4130 levels where it sat for the past 2 weeks as low as 1.3850 – now trading at 1.3920. The USDJPY rose today – Tokyo was closed for a holiday, the Yen giving way to the Dollar as global stocks posted their largest end of year gains ever! Sentiment improved somewhat in the final hours of 2008 as a
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